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Advent of Evil – Part 8 of 10
Roberts looked at his friend in shock. Questions about the astral plane meant he was stumbling down the bramble-ridden path of the occult. Still, coming from Alan it must be important. “I know enough to not get involved, but since you’re the one asking, I guess we can head down that road a little bit.” “I’ve been working on a case lately. I can’t really go into … oh forget it. I’m not supposed to go into details, but I know you won’t betray my confidence.” The minister was suddenly uncomfortable in his chair. His friend was breaking police confidentiality…
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Creative Voice
What tone does your writing take? Are you the all-knowing sage of product advice, or the trendy counter-culture revolutionary introducing a new idea? What does the tone of your marketing copy say about your brand? Most of us publish marketing collateral without a second thought as to the tone with which our message is conveyed. We count the number of words used, not the number of emotions conveyed. It’s a simple tactic that helps us reach the necessary end of our task – a “well-written” piece of material talking about our product. At the same time, though, we could be…
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Advent of Evil – Part 7 of 10
“I know you know something, I just don’t know how I know that.” “Yeah, like that’s not confusing,” Richard replied. Alan had obviously figured things out. He’d been hinting at an interrogation for weeks now, and Richard had been doing everything possible to avoid it – which only made Alan more suspicious. Now he’d finally cornered Richard in his house and was demanding answers. The forensics were fairly damning, and Richard was shocked at the sheer volume of information Alan had been able to put together. Over the past two hours, Alan had walked Richard through a painstakingly detailed summary…
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Bayesian Statistics – Conclusion
People groan whenever I bring up statistics in relation to marketing theory. In reality, though, most marketing decisions are made based on numbers. Without some level of smart statistical analysis, you can’t make an informed decision based on your data and all of those research dollars are wasted. Given, the case study I posted yesterday was a relatively simple case. Three products across three demographics. I simplified things further by assuming each person in each segment rated each product. In reality, you can never truly know this. Say, for example, you have a segment of 1,000 people. In this group,…
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Bayesian Statistics – Part IV
Understanding the Bayesian average is one thing. Understanding how to calculate it is something different. Understanding how to apply it is something in a whole other league. So here’s a quick and simple case study regarding product feedback and comparing aggregate product ratings using Bayesian statistics. Situation Your widget factory produces three different widgets and targets two different segments of the market. For the sake of simplicity, we won’t go in to the actual definitions of either your product or the market, just assume that they are well suited for one another. In order to cope with changing market conditions,…
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Bayesian Statistics – Part III
A traditional average is easy to understand. If you take a group of people, add their heights together and divide by the number of people in the group, you know the average height. A simple average is a relatively easy way to create a prediction for future behavior – in many cases, you can reasonably assume a new person entering the room would be at or near the average height. More often than not, though, a simple average is inapplicable to the real world. Your distribution is too varied (your room consists of small children and professional basketball players) or…
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Bayesian Statistics – Part II
Most statistics are based on solid, static data. The average for a group of numbers is independent of what numbers are actually included in the group. Statistics give us a snapshot of our data so we can make high-level decisions based on it without knowing the details of each discrete measurement. This simplicity makes statistics powerful indicators in business, but it also betrays their weakness. Let’s take, for example, the classic Monty Hall problem many of us learned in statistics class. You are presented with three doors. Behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two,…
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Bayesian Statistics – Part I
In our careers as marketers we are often presented with problems that require some kind of statistical analysis. One of the most frequently-faced issues is that of content or quality ratings. Let’s say your company produces 5 different widgets. You ask 100 of your customers to rate these widgets and ask them to rate all five when they do so. Assuming they all provide feedback, you now have 100 ratings for each widget – it’s easy from here to take an average and identify which of your widgets is the most popular. Unfortunately, the world never works this way. In…
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Advent of Evil – Part 6 of 10
Richard was troubled. He’d fallen into a dark place and, like a child stranded at the bottom of a well, knew not how to save himself. He clawed in vain at the walls of his prison and wept openly when he realized how utterly lost and desolate he was. Until moments ago, his soul had been, for the most part, smooth and clear. Like any man his age, there were a few blemishes. He consoled himself with the belief that no one could live a completely blemish-free life. A lie to his father about who’d broken a window here. A…
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A Night at the Museum – 2
One of the most spectacular exhibits as the Evergreen Air Museum was the series dedicated to the history of flight. They had everything from one of Da Vinci’s early designs to the Wright Flier to other early bi-plane flight trainers. It was fascinating to see, and made me remember just how magical the process of flight is. Think about it. Through the application of simple physics principles (Newton’s laws) and theories of aerodynamics (Bernoulli’s Principle) we are able to take a heavier than air vehicle and make it fly. I can tell you this, standing there looking at a replica…